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UNITED STATES:Are your State Home Prices Overvalued or Undervalued?

Determine whether the home prices in your state are over valued or undervalued

In Summery

Moody’s economist Matthew Walsh says US home prices are 15.7% above their fundamental value.

Some of the most overvalued states include Idaho, Tennessee, and North Carolina.

Some of the most undervalued are Maryland, California, and New York.

United States| In a report by Business Insider, Moody’s economist Matthew Walsh sees US home prices on a national basis as slightly overvalued. 

According to the renowned market research firm’s model, national median prices are currently 15.7% above their fundamental value, leading Walsh to believe they’ll face another 4-4.5% decline in the coming months. The model accounts for variables like construction costs, household formation rates, and where home prices stand relative to median incomes. Nationally, homes are the least affordable relative to incomes that they’ve been in four decades, Walsh said. 

But as the saying goes, all real estate is local, and some areas of the country are more overvalued than others. Below, we’ve listed where every state — plus Washington, DC — stood as of Q2 2023, according to Moody’s model. We’ve also included their median home prices as of September, pulling data from Redfin.

Walsh said that he considers home prices in any state where they exceed their fundamental value by over 10% as “overvalued.” The states are listed from the least to most overvalued. 

1. Maryland

State House of Annapolis
State House of Annapolis, Maryland. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -9.17%

Median home price: $410,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

2. California

San Francisco skyline
The San Francisco skyline. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -1.81%

Median home price: $789,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

3. New York

new york city skyline 2019
The setting sun is reflected off of the glass and steel buildings along the lower Manhattan skyline in New York City, Wednesday, April 24, 2019. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -1.65%

Median home price: $491,500

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

4. Illinois

Chicago Skyline

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -0.78%

Median home price: $272,600

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

5. Alaska

anchorage

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 2.37%

Median home price: $362,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

6. West Virginia

Harpers Ferry, West Virginia
Harpers Ferry, West Virginia. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 3.79%

Median home price: $284,100

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

7. Pennsylvania

harrisburg pennsylvania

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 4.74%

Median home price: $275,800

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

8. Delaware

Shops in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware
FILE – People walk by shops Nov. 13, 2020, in Rehoboth Beach, Del. The Friday June 10, 2022, report on consumer prices is expected to show that annual inflation slowed ever so slightly to 8.2% in May from 8.3% in the prior month. President Joe Biden faces a delicate trade-off as he tries to help his fellow Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. He needs U.S. consumers to pull back just enough so that inflation eases, but not so much that the economy risks plunging into a recession. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 5.26%

Median home price: $342,600

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

9. Mississippi

A lighthouse overlooking Gulfport, Mississippi
Gulfport, Mississippi 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 6.54%

Median home price: $258,200

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

10. Connecticut

Hartford, Connecticut.
Hartford, Connecticut. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 6.92%

Median home price: $388,200

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

11. Washington, DC

Washington DC

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 7.26%

Median home price: $625,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

12. New Jersey

Jersey City

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 7.84%

Median home price: $495,200

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

13. Massachusetts

Boston

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 8.09%

Median (listed) home price: $730,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

14. Washington

The Seattle skyline
The Seattle skyline. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 9.86%

Median home price: $603,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

15. Louisiana

New Orleans french quarter
French Quarter in New Orleans, Louisiana. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 9.97%

Median home price: $242,500

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

16. Iowa

Iowa

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 10.85%

Median home price: $229,200

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

17. New Hampshire

New Hampshire

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 10.97%

Median home price: $470,400

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

18. Oregon

Oregon

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 12.38%

Median home price: $502,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

19. Alabama

Alabama, United States.
Alabama, United States. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 13.48%

Median home price: $276,200

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

20. Arkansas

Arkansas

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.1%

Median home price: $257,400

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

21. New Mexico

Albuquerque new mexico

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.45%

Median home price: $367,400

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

22. Montana

Montana

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.46%

Median home price: Redfin data unavailable

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

23. Kentucky

kentucky

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.9%

Median home price: $250,600

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

24. Oklahoma

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.5%

Median home price: $236,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

25. Ohio

Ohio

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.79%

Median home price: $235,200

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

26. North Dakota

North Dakota

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.82%

Median (listed) home price: $329,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

27. Virginia

Fairfax County, Virginia
Lake Anne Reston Virginia Luxury Lakefront Townhomes Fairfax County 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.91%

Median home price: $413,500

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

28. Rhode Island

Newport, Rhode Island
Newport, Rhode Island. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 18.67%

Median home price: $468,200

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

29. Minnesota

Minnesota

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 20.2%

Median home price: $339,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

30. Wyoming

Wyoming

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.03%

Median home price: $210,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

31. Maine

Maine

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 21.76%

Median home price: $393,100

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

32. Wisconsin

Milwaukee Wisconsin

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.03%

Median home price: $297,800

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

33. Vermont

vermont

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.63%

Median home price: $393,900

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

34. Nebraska

Omaha Nebraska

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 23.64%

Median home price: $281,700

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

35. Florida

Florida

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 23.99%

Median home price: $402,100

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

36. Michigan

Mackinac Island, Michigan
Mackinac Island, Michigan. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.21%

Median home price: $254,600

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

37. Missouri

Kansas City, Missouri
Kansas City, Missouri. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.4%

Median home price: $258,500

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

38. Colorado

Colorado

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.57%

Median home price: $612,200

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

39. Texas

Austin Texas

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 26.13%

Median home price: $348,300

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

40. Utah

Utah

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 26.31%

Median home price: $566,900

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

41. Kansas

Kansas State Capitol
File: The Kansas State Capitol building in Topeka, Kansas. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 27.35%

Median home price: $258,700

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

42. South Dakota

South Dakota

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.02%

Median (listed) home price: $369,900

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

43. Hawaii

Hawaii

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.63%

Median home price: $750,600

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

44. Nevada

Las Vegas
Las Vegas is usually warm and there’s a lot to do there. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.79%

Median home price: $437,300

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

45. Arizona

Arizona

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 30.08%

Median home price: $435,700

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

46. Indiana

Indiana

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 32.39%

Median home price: $249,700

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

47. Georgia

Atlanta, Georgia.
Atlanta, Georgia. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 32.92%

Median home price: $367,400

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

48. South Carolina

South Carolina

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 37.33%

Median home price: $370,800

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

49. North Carolina

Outer Banks
Corolla Beach in the Outer Banks. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 37.66%

Median home price: $363,000

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

50. Tennessee

Nashville Tennessee

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 40.81%

Median home price: $368,400

Source: Moody’s and Redfin

51. Idaho

Boise Idaho
Boise is the capital of the state of Idaho. 

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 41.87%

Median home price: $467,000

Source: Insider

By Business Insider

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