Determine whether the home prices in your state are over valued or undervalued
In Summery
Moody’s economist Matthew Walsh says US home prices are 15.7% above their fundamental value.
Some of the most overvalued states include Idaho, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
Some of the most undervalued are Maryland, California, and New York.
United States| In a report by Business Insider, Moody’s economist Matthew Walsh sees US home prices on a national basis as slightly overvalued.
According to the renowned market research firm’s model, national median prices are currently 15.7% above their fundamental value, leading Walsh to believe they’ll face another 4-4.5% decline in the coming months. The model accounts for variables like construction costs, household formation rates, and where home prices stand relative to median incomes. Nationally, homes are the least affordable relative to incomes that they’ve been in four decades, Walsh said.
But as the saying goes, all real estate is local, and some areas of the country are more overvalued than others. Below, we’ve listed where every state — plus Washington, DC — stood as of Q2 2023, according to Moody’s model. We’ve also included their median home prices as of September, pulling data from Redfin.
Walsh said that he considers home prices in any state where they exceed their fundamental value by over 10% as “overvalued.” The states are listed from the least to most overvalued.
1. Maryland
![State House of Annapolis](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-40.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -9.17%
Median home price: $410,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
2. California
![San Francisco skyline](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-42.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -1.81%
Median home price: $789,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
3. New York
![new york city skyline 2019](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-43.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -1.65%
Median home price: $491,500
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
4. Illinois
![Chicago Skyline](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-22.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): -0.78%
Median home price: $272,600
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
5. Alaska
![anchorage](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-3.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 2.37%
Median home price: $362,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
6. West Virginia
![Harpers Ferry, West Virginia](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-41.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 3.79%
Median home price: $284,100
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
7. Pennsylvania
![harrisburg pennsylvania](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-15.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 4.74%
Median home price: $275,800
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
8. Delaware
![Shops in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-23.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 5.26%
Median home price: $342,600
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
9. Mississippi
![A lighthouse overlooking Gulfport, Mississippi](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-2.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 6.54%
Median home price: $258,200
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
10. Connecticut
![Hartford, Connecticut.](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 6.92%
Median home price: $388,200
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
11. Washington, DC
![Washington DC](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-1.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 7.26%
Median home price: $625,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
12. New Jersey
![Jersey City](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-39.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 7.84%
Median home price: $495,200
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
13. Massachusetts
![Boston](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-11.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 8.09%
Median (listed) home price: $730,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
14. Washington
![The Seattle skyline](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-22.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 9.86%
Median home price: $603,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
15. Louisiana
![New Orleans french quarter](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-14.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 9.97%
Median home price: $242,500
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
16. Iowa
![Iowa](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-35.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 10.85%
Median home price: $229,200
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
17. New Hampshire
![New Hampshire](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-27.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 10.97%
Median home price: $470,400
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
18. Oregon
![Oregon](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-29.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 12.38%
Median home price: $502,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
19. Alabama
![Alabama, United States.](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-21.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 13.48%
Median home price: $276,200
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
20. Arkansas
![Arkansas](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-34.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.1%
Median home price: $257,400
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
21. New Mexico
![Albuquerque new mexico](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-12.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.45%
Median home price: $367,400
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
22. Montana
![Montana](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-32.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.46%
Median home price: Redfin data unavailable
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
23. Kentucky
![kentucky](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-47.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 16.9%
Median home price: $250,600
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
24. Oklahoma
![Oklahoma City, Oklahoma](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-24.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.5%
Median home price: $236,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
25. Ohio
![Ohio](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-7.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.79%
Median home price: $235,200
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
26. North Dakota
![North Dakota](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-5.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.82%
Median (listed) home price: $329,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
27. Virginia
![Fairfax County, Virginia](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-31.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 17.91%
Median home price: $413,500
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
28. Rhode Island
![Newport, Rhode Island](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-10.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 18.67%
Median home price: $468,200
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
29. Minnesota
![Minnesota](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-4.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 20.2%
Median home price: $339,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
30. Wyoming
![Wyoming](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-6.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.03%
Median home price: $210,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
31. Maine
![Maine](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-9.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 21.76%
Median home price: $393,100
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
32. Wisconsin
![Milwaukee Wisconsin](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-8.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.03%
Median home price: $297,800
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
33. Vermont
![vermont](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-17.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 22.63%
Median home price: $393,900
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
34. Nebraska
![Omaha Nebraska](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-45.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 23.64%
Median home price: $281,700
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
35. Florida
![Florida](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-46.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 23.99%
Median home price: $402,100
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
36. Michigan
![Mackinac Island, Michigan](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-49.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.21%
Median home price: $254,600
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
37. Missouri
![Kansas City, Missouri](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-48.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.4%
Median home price: $258,500
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
38. Colorado
![Colorado](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-44.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 25.57%
Median home price: $612,200
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
39. Texas
![Austin Texas](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-38.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 26.13%
Median home price: $348,300
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
40. Utah
![Utah](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-16.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 26.31%
Median home price: $566,900
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
41. Kansas
![Kansas State Capitol](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-37.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 27.35%
Median home price: $258,700
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
42. South Dakota
![South Dakota](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-36.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.02%
Median (listed) home price: $369,900
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
43. Hawaii
![Hawaii](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-20.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.63%
Median home price: $750,600
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
44. Nevada
![Las Vegas](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-33.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 29.79%
Median home price: $437,300
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
45. Arizona
![Arizona](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-26.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 30.08%
Median home price: $435,700
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
46. Indiana
![Indiana](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-19.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 32.39%
Median home price: $249,700
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
47. Georgia
![Atlanta, Georgia.](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-28.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 32.92%
Median home price: $367,400
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
48. South Carolina
![South Carolina](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-18.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 37.33%
Median home price: $370,800
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
49. North Carolina
![Outer Banks](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-30.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 37.66%
Median home price: $363,000
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
50. Tennessee
![Nashville Tennessee](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-13.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 40.81%
Median home price: $368,400
Source: Moody’s and Redfin
51. Idaho
![Boise Idaho](https://bizmart.africa/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image-25.jpeg)
How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 41.87%
Median home price: $467,000
Source: Insider