How Africa Can Profit from the Green Hydrogen Boom
By 2050, African green hydrogen (GH2) could meet 5–10% of global hydrogen demand. But powering industry and boosting energy access require careful attention to ensure that Africa not only exports but also builds local industry and jobs.
In the Namibian desert, the sun rises over sand dunes and windswept coastline, perfect conditions to produce renewable energy. Solar irradiation and coastal winds make green hydrogen production cheaper here than almost anywhere in the world, and many countries, especially in Europe, are looking to the African continent as a key exporter of GH2.
While several hydrogen and energy transition-focused partnerships have emerged between African countries and the European Union (EU), such as the EU-Morocco Green Partnership, a key question remains: how can these partnerships deliver mutual benefits for both African countries and the EU? It is critical that these partnerships align with the objectives set out in key policy frameworks, including the EU’s Clean Industrial Deal and Africa’s Agenda 2063, ensuring that they contribute to broader sustainable development, energy security, and just transition goals.
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Major Player Potential
Global decarbonization efforts, from Europe’s Clean Industrial Deal to Japan’s and South Korea’s hydrogen roadmaps, have placed green hydrogen at the center of energy transition strategies. The EU alone estimates that hydrogen could make up to 10% of its final energy demand by mid-century. For Africa, this creates an opportunity to become a supply partner to external markets while also building local industry, jobs, and expertise.
By 2050, Africa could produce 30–60 million tonnes of GH2 annually, according to conservative estimates by the Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance (AGHA). That’s equivalent to 5–10% of projected global hydrogen demand. This scale of production from key countries such as Namibia, South Africa, Mauritania, Egypt, and Morocco, could generate $60–120bn in GDP.
To put this in context, global hydrogen demand is expected to reach 500–660 million tonnes by 2050, meaning Africa has the potential to be a major player, not just a marginal contributor. Namibia alone could scale production from 1–2 million tonnes per year in 2030 to 10–15 million tonnes by mid-century, according to its National Hydrogen Strategy.
Infrastructure Needs and Investment Challenges
However, drawing on modeling done by Development Reimagined across 13 African countries, total infrastructure needs amount to $108.9–149.9bn per year until 2030, of which energy infrastructure alone is roughly $22–30bn annually. Without innovative, scaled investment at this level, the continent’s green hydrogen potential will be constrained.
Keeping the Benefits at Home
Raising the finance to deliver green hydrogen in Africa is just part of the challenge. Ensuring that African hydrogen production benefits local economies, the environment, and communities is equally important.
Will Africa end up just being a supplier of raw energy—as it has been for oil and gas for decades—or will African governments prioritize using hydrogen to expand local electricity access, power green industries like steel and fertilizers, and only then consider exports?
For example, will Namibia’s green hydrogen be extracted and exported to Europe, or will it be used locally in Namibia’s Walvis Bay SEZ to produce green steel and fertilizers that can then be exported as higher-value finished goods to countries like the Netherlands, Germany, or Japan? This approach would create more jobs, industrial capacity, and broader economic benefits at home.
Three Recommendations for Sustainable Green Hydrogen Growth
How can Africa avoid falling into an extractive cycle, as seen with oil and gas? Three moves stand out:
- Incorporate local industry into contracts. Governments should require domestic manufacturing, workforce participation, and technology transfer as part of deals with foreign companies. Public–private partnerships (PPP), equity stakes, and profit-sharing arrangements ensure that foreign capital brings real benefits to African economies.
- Clarity in industrial policies. Investors want predictable rules, but African governments can use this certainty to tie investments to domestic priorities, not just foreign demand. Clear licensing, industrial policies, and requirements for downstream processing—such as producing fertilizers, ammonia, or synthetic fuels locally—can help keep value in Africa rather than exporting only raw hydrogen. Regional coordination through the Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance can further harmonize standards and enhance Africa’s bargaining power.
- Invest in skills development. Green hydrogen is knowledge-intensive. Training the local population, including young people and women, in electrolysis, fuel-cell technology, and project management will ensure that expertise stays in Africa. Universities, technical colleges, and apprenticeships should be integrated into green hydrogen strategies from the outset.
Africa’s Opportunity
The stakes for Africa’s positioning at key global convenings, such as COP30 and the upcoming Africa-EU summit in November, are high. Green hydrogen could generate tens of billions in GDP and millions of jobs by 2050. Global hydrogen trade remains small, and green hydrogen is still a minor share. However, Africa, with its unmatched renewable potential, sits at the center of this unfolding story.
With its vast renewable resources, African countries, such as Namibia, can move beyond being a potential supplier of green hydrogen. They can become dependable, high-value partners and market shapers in the global green hydrogen market. Unlike Asia or Latin America, Africa enjoys some of the world’s lowest production costs. But without strong industrial policies and strategic investments, these advantages risk being lost.
The Namibian sun beats down and the wind carries across the dunes – the landscape hasn’t moved, and the opportunity is there. The decisions made today will determine whether green hydrogen builds local industry and jobs or flows away as just another export. Our moment is now, and our ambition must rise to meet it.
